Estimation of reproduction numbers of COVID-19 in typical countries and epidemic trends under different prevention and control scenarios.

ABSTRACT: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a life-threatening pandemic. The epidemic trends in different countries vary considerably due to different policy-making and resources mobilization. We calculated basic reproduction number (R₀) and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproductive number (R_t) of COVID-19 by using the maximum likelihood method and the sequential Bayesian method, respectively. European and North American countries possessed higher R₀ and unsteady R_t fluctuations, whereas some heavily affected Asian countries showed relatively low R₀ and declining R_t now. The numbers of patients in Africa and Latin America are still low, but the potential risk of huge outbreaks cannot be ignored. Three sc

SUBMITTER: Xu C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7255828 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature