Approaches to Daily Monitoring of the SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak in Northern Italy.

ABSTRACT: Italy was the first European country affected by the Sars-Cov-2 pandemic, with the first autochthonous case identified on Feb 21st. Specific control measures restricting social contacts were introduced by the Italian government starting from the beginning of March. In the current study we analyzed public data from the four most affected Italian regions. We (i) estimated the time-varying reproduction number (R _t ), the average number of secondary cases that each infected individual would infect at time t, to monitor the positive impact of restriction measures; (ii) applied the generalized logistic and the modified Richards models to describe the epidemic pattern and obtain short-term forecasts. We observed a monotonic decrease of R _t

SUBMITTER: Moirano G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7256452 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature