Dataset Information

Temporary Fertility Decline after Large Rubella Outbreak, Japan.

ABSTRACT: Japan experienced 2 large rubella epidemics in 2004 and 2012-2014. Because of suboptimal immunization levels, the country has been experiencing a third major outbreak during 2018-2020. We conducted time series analyses to evaluate the effect of the 2012-2014 nationwide rubella epidemic on prefecture-level natality in Japan. We identified a statistically significant decline in fertility rates associated with rubella epidemic activity and increased Google searches for the term "rubella." We noted that the timing of fertility declines in 2014 occurred 9-13 months after peak rubella incidence months in 2013 in 4 prefectures with the highest rubella incidence. Public health interventions should focus on enhancing vaccination campaigns against rubella, not only to protect pregnant women from infection but also to mitigate declines in population size and birth rates.

SUBMITTER: Mizumoto K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7258466 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Temporary Fertility Decline after Large Rubella Outbreak, Japan.

Mizumoto Kenji K Chowell Gerardo G

Emerging infectious diseases 20200601 6

Japan experienced 2 large rubella epidemics in 2004 and 2012-2014. Because of suboptimal immunization levels, the country has been experiencing a third major outbreak during 2018-2020. We conducted time series analyses to evaluate the effect of the 2012-2014 nationwide rubella epidemic on prefecture-level natality in Japan. We identified a statistically significant decline in fertility rates associated with rubella epidemic activity and increased Google searches for the term "rubella." We noted ...[more]

PMID: 32441617

Similar Datasets

Project description:IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic led to a decline in fertility rates worldwide. Although many regions have experienced a temporary drop in fertility rates with the spread of the infection, subsequent recovery has varied across countries. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 infection rates and regional sociodemographic factors on the recovery of fertility rates in Japan following the state of emergency.MethodsThis study examined prefectural fertility data from before the COVID-19 pandemic to forecast fertility rates up to 2022 using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model. A regression analysis was conducted on fertility rates during the first state of emergency and the subsequent recovery rate with respect to the number of new COVID-19 cases and sociodemographic factors specific to each prefecture.ResultsDuring the first state of emergency, the monthly fertility rate decreased by an average of -13.8% (SD: 6.26, min: -28.78, max: 0.15) compared with the previous year. Over the following 22 months, the average fertility recovery rate was +2.31% (SD: 3.57; min: -8.55, max: 19.54). Multivariate analysis of the impact of the pandemic on fertility changes during the first emergency indicated a negative correlation between new COVID-19 cases per capita and the proportion of nuclear households. No significant correlation was found between fertility recovery rate and new COVID-19 cases or emergency duration. When classifying fertility rate fluctuation patterns before and after the emergency into four clusters, variations were noted in the proportion of the elderly population, marriage divorce rate and the number of internet searches related to pregnancy intentions across the clusters.ConclusionsNo association was found between pregnancy intentions related to the spread of infection, such as the number of new cases and the fertility recovery rate following the first state of emergency. Differences in the patterns of decline and recovery during the pandemic were observed based on population composition and internet searches for infection and pregnancy across different prefectures.

Project description:BackgroundRubella is a vaccine-preventable contagious disease causing an estimated 100,000 children to be born with congenital rubella syndrome each year globally. Studies documented that 18 rubella outbreaks were occurred each year in Ethiopia. Yeka sub-city woreda 13 public health emergency management office reported two measles suspected cases on 8 February, 2018. We investigated this outbreak to identify its etiology, describe the outbreak and implement control measures.MethodsWe described the outbreak using descriptive epidemiology. The study population was defined as students learning in the school where the outbreak occurred. Suspected rubella case was defined as student with generalized rash whereas confirmed case was suspected case tested positive for rubella IgM. Questionnaires, checklists and students record review were used to collect data. We searched for new cases in classes daily and excluded them from classes. The school environment was assessed and the outbreak was described in person and time.ResultsWe identified 58 cases (median age: 4.6 years; IQR: 4-5 years) with six of them rubella IgM positive and 52 epidemiologically linked. The outbreak began on 8 February 2018 having multiple intermittent peaks during its course reaching its highest peak at 2 April, 2018 and ended on 20 April, 2018. Index cases were reported from two classes; however, cases were occurred in 13/15(86.67%) of the classes during the entire outbreak. Fifty five percent (32/58) and 45/58(77.59%) of the cases were females and 3-5 years children, respectively. Overall attack rate was 58/531(4.05%). Attack rate was higher in females 32/252 (12.7%) than in males 26/279 (9.32%), and higher 45/275(16.36%) in 3-5 years than those in 5-8 years 13/256(5.08%) children. Case fatality ratio was zero. All cases were vaccinated against measles but unvaccinated against rubella.ConclusionsAttack rate was higher in females than in males and higher in 3-5 years than 5-8 years children. We recommended establishing rubella surveillance system, conducting sero-prevalence of rubella among child bearing age females and establishing CRS surveillance among young infants to provide evidence-based information for RCV introduction. It was also recommended to develop a national rubella surveillance guideline which aid to exclude rubella cases from schools during outbreak.

Dataset Information

Temporary Fertility Decline after Large Rubella Outbreak, Japan.

Publications

Temporary Fertility Decline after Large Rubella Outbreak, Japan.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets