Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 fatality trends: Death kinetics law versus infection-to-death delay rule.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic has world-widely motivated numerous attempts to properly adjust classical epidemiological models, namely those of the SEIR-type, to the spreading characteristics of the novel Corona virus. In this context, the fundamental structure of the differential equations making up the SEIR models has remained largely unaltered-presuming that COVID-19 may be just "another epidemic". We here take an alternative approach, by investigating the relevance of one key ingredient of the SEIR models, namely the death kinetics law. The latter is compared to an alternative approach, which we call infection-to-death delay rule. For that purpose, we check how well these two mathematical formulations are able to represent the publicly available country-specific data on recorded fatalities, ac

SUBMITTER: Scheiner S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7261113 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature