A phased approach to unlocking during the COVID-19 pandemic-Lessons from trend analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to radical political control of social behaviour. The purpose of this paper is to explore data trends from the pandemic regarding infection rates/policy impact, and draw learning points for informing the unlocking process.

Methods

The daily published cases in England in each of 149 Upper Tier Local Authority (UTLA) areas were converted to Average Daily Infection Rate (ADIR), an R-value - the number of further people infected by one infected person during their infectious phase with Rate of Change of Infection Rate (RCIR) also calculated. Stepwise regression was carried out to see what local factors could be linked to differences in local infection rates FINDINGS: By the 19th April 2020 the infection R has fallen from 2.8 on 23rd March

SUBMITTER: Stedman M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7261991 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature