Border closure for island nations? Analysis of pandemic and bioweapon-related threats suggests some scenarios warrant drastic action.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Boyd M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7262147 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Border closure for island nations? Analysis of pandemic and bioweapon-related threats suggests some scenarios warrant drastic action.
Boyd Matt M Baker Michael G MG Wilson Nick N
Australian and New Zealand journal of public health 20200401 2
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Project description:BackgroundCountries are well advised to prepare for future pandemic risks (e.g., pandemic influenza, novel emerging agents or synthetic bioweapons). These preparations do not typically include planning for complete border closure. Even though border closure may not be instituted in time, and can fail, there might still plausible chances of success for well organized island nations.ObjectiveTo estimate costs and benefits of complete border closure in response to new pandemic threats, at an initial proof-of-concept level. New Zealand was used as a case-study for an island country.MethodsAn Excel spreadsheet model was developed to estimate costs and benefits. Case-study specific epidemiological data was sourced from past influenza pandemics. Country-specific healthcare cost data, valuation of life, and lost tourism revenue were imputed (with lost trade also in scenario analyses).ResultsFor a new pandemic equivalent to the 1918 influenza pandemic (albeit with half the mortality rate, "Scenario A"), it was estimated that successful border closure for 26 weeks provided a net societal benefit (e.g., of NZ$11.0 billion, USD$7.3 billion). Even in the face of a complete end to trade, a net benefit was estimated for scenarios where the mortality rate was high (e.g., at 10 times the mortality impact of "Scenario A", or 2.75% of the country's population dying) giving a net benefit of NZ$54 billion (USD$36 billion). But for some other pandemic scenarios where trade ceased, border closure resulted in a net negative societal value (e.g., for "Scenario A" times three for 26 weeks of border closure-but not for only 12 weeks of closure when it would still be beneficial).ConclusionsThis "proof-of-concept" work indicates that more detailed cost-benefit analysis of border closure in very severe pandemic situations for some island nations is probably warranted, as this course of action might sometimes be worthwhile from a societal perspective.
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Project description:Cancer is a leading cause of death in small island nations and is forecast to increase substantially over the coming years. Governments, regional agencies, and health services of these nations face daunting challenges, including small and fragile economies, unequal distribution of resources, weak or fragmented health services, small population sizes that make sustainable workforce and service development problematic, and the unavailability of specialised cancer services to large parts of the population. Action is required to prevent large human and economic costs relating to cancer. This final Series paper highlights the challenges and opportunities for small island nations, and identifies ways in which the international community can support efforts to improve cancer control in these settings. Our recommendations focus on funding and investment opportunities to strengthen cancer-related health systems to improve sharing of technical assistance for research, surveillance, workforce, and service development, and to support small island nations with policy changes to reduce the consumption of commodities (eg, tobacco and unhealthy food products) that increase cancer risk.
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Project description:We study the closure dynamics of a large number of well-controlled circular apertures within an epithelial monolayer, where the collective cell migration responsible for epithelization is triggered by the removal of a spatial constraint rather than by scratching. Based on experimental observations, we propose a physical model that takes into account border forces, friction with the substrate, and tissue rheology. Border protrusive activity drives epithelization despite the presence of a contractile actomyosin cable at the periphery of the wound. The closure dynamics is quantified by an epithelization coefficient, defined as the ratio of protrusive stress to tissue-substrate friction, that allows classification of different phenotypes. The same analysis demonstrates a distinct signature for human cells bearing the oncogenic RasV12 mutation, demonstrating the potential of the approach to quantitatively characterize metastatic transformations.
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Project description:ObjectivesIn this paper, we aimed to investigate the evolving debate over border closure in Korea during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, to address the main themes associated with border closure, and to discuss the factors that need to be considered when making such decisions.MethodsWe collated and reviewed previously conducted review studies on border closures during infectious disease outbreaks to derive relevant themes and factors.ResultsAccording to our systematic review on border closures and travel restrictions, the effects of such containment efforts are limited. We suggest considering the following factors when determining whether to impose border closure measures: (1) disease characteristics, (2) timeliness of implementation, (3) transmission delay and the basic reproduction number, (4) globalization and pandemics, and (5) social and economic costs.ConclusionsOur assessment indicates that the effects of border closures are at best temporary and limited. Alternative measures must be contemplated and implemented to suppress the spread of COVID-19 in particular and infectious diseases more broadly.
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