Dataset Information

Spatiotemporal matching between medical resources and population ageing in China from 2008 to 2017.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Globally, the increasingly severe population ageing issue has been creating challenges in terms of medical resource allocation and public health policies. The aim of this study is to address the space-time trends of the population-ageing rate (PAR), the number of medical resources per thousand residents (NMRTR) in mainland China in the past 10 years, and to investigate the spatial and temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China.

Methods

The Bayesian space-time hierarchy model was employed to investigate the spatiotemporal variation of PAR and NMRTR in mainland China over the past 10 years. Subsequently, a Bayesian Geo-Detector model was developed to evaluate the spatial and temporal matching levels between PAR and NMRTR at national level. The matching odds ratio (OR) index proposed in this paper was applied to measure the matching levels between the two terms in each provincial area.

Results

The Chinese spatial and temporal matching q-statistic values between the PAR and three vital types of NMRTR were all less than 0.45. Only the spatial matching Bayesian q-statistic values between the PAR and the number of beds in hospital reached 0.42 (95% credible interval: 0.37, 0.48) nationwide. Chongqing and Guizhou located in southwest China had the highest spatial and temporal matching ORs, respectively, between the PAR and the three types of NMRTR. The spatial pattern of the spatial and temporal matching ORs between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China exhibited distinct geographical features, but the geographical structure of the spatial matching differed from that of the temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR.

Conclusion

The spatial and temporal matching degrees between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China were generally very low. The provincial regions with high PAR largely experienced relatively low spatial matching levels between the PAR and NMRTR, and vice versa. The geographical pattern of the temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR exhibited the feature of north-south differentiation.

SUBMITTER: Li J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7268461 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Spatiotemporal matching between medical resources and population ageing in China from 2008 to 2017.

Li Junming J Chen Xinglin X Han Xiulan X Zhang Gehong G

BMC public health 20200603 1

<h4>Background</h4>Globally, the increasingly severe population ageing issue has been creating challenges in terms of medical resource allocation and public health policies. The aim of this study is to address the space-time trends of the population-ageing rate (PAR), the number of medical resources per thousand residents (NMRTR) in mainland China in the past 10 years, and to investigate the spatial and temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China.<h4>Methods</h4>The Bayesian sp ...[more]

PMID: 32493251

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Project description:BackgroundThe Chinese population has aged significantly in the last few decades. Comprehensive health losses including both fatal and non-fatal health outcomes associated with ageing in China have not been detailed.MethodsBased on freely accessible disability adjusted life years (DALYs) estimated by the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2017, we adopted a robust decomposition method that ascribes changes in DALYs in any given country across two time points to changes resulting from three sources: population size, age structure, and age-specific DALYs rate per 100,000 population. Using the method, we calculated DALYs associated with population ageing in China from 1990 to 2017 and examined the counteraction between the effects of DALYs rate change and population ageing. This method extends previous work through attributing the change in DALYs to the three sources.ResultsPopulation ageing was associated with 92.8 million DALYs between 1990 and 2017 in China, of which 65.8% (61.1 million) were years of life lost (YLLs). Males had comparatively more DALYs associated with population ageing than females in the study period. The five leading causes of DALYs associated with population ageing between 1990 and 2017 were stroke (23.6 million), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (18.3 million), ischemic heart disease (13.0 million), tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (6.1 million) and liver cancer (5.0 million). Between 1990 and 2017, changes in DALYs associated with age-specific DALY rate reductions far exceeded those related to population ageing (- 196.2 million versus 92.8 million); 57.5% (- 112.8 million) of DALYs were caused by decreases in rates attributed to 84 modifiable risk factors.ConclusionPopulation ageing was associated with growing health loss in China from 1990 to 2017. Despite the recent progress in alleviating health loss associated with population ageing, the government should encourage scientific research on effective and affordable prevention and control strategies and should consider investment in resources to implement strategies nationwide to address the future challenge of population ageing.

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Project description:AimsAt a time of declining smoking prevalence in England, it is useful to document any changes in the characteristics of smokers. This has implications for targeting tobacco control policies and interventions. This study compared the characteristics of smokers from 2008 to 2017 to assess changes in smoking and quitting patterns and socio-demographic profile.Design and settingAnalysis of annual trends in results from repeated cross-sectional surveys of representative samples of the population in England from 2008 to 2017.ParticipantsThe study included 208 813 adults aged 16+.MeasurementsInformation was gathered on age, sex, social grade and region, cigarette consumption, cigarette dependence as measured by time to first cigarette of the day, daily smoking, smoking roll-your-own cigarettes, attempts to cut down, use of an e-cigarette or nicotine replacement therapy, attempts to cut down or quit, use of support in quit attempts and whether the quit attempt was abrupt.FindingsDuring the period, mean daily cigarette consumption [B = -0.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.33 to -0.27] and the time to first cigarette score decreased (B = -0.03, 95% CI = -0.03 to -0.02). The proportion of smokers attempting to cut down or quit decreased (odds ratio (OR) range = 0.96-0.97, 95% CI range = 0.95-0.97). Use of behavioural support [odds ratio (OR) = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.86-0.92] or no support decreased (OR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.96-0.99), while use of pharmacological support, including e-cigarettes, increased (OR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.02-1.05). There was no significant change in the difference in social grade between smokers and non-smokers comparing 2008 with 2017. Changes in smoking and quitting behaviour were independent of changes in socio-demographic characteristics.ConclusionsBetween 2008 and 2017 in England, smokers appear to have become less dependent on cigarettes but less likely to try to quit or cut down. Of those who tried to quit, fewer used behavioural support and more used pharmacological support. The proportion from more disadvantaged backgrounds did not change significantly.

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Project description:IntroductionAs the etiology of Kawasaki disease (KD) remains unknown, identifying spatiotemporal clusters with proper stratification of KD could provide further evidence for investigating the triggers of KD. However, spatiotemporal distributions of KD with sex stratification have never been reported. Therefore, we aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of KD by sex in South Korea.MethodsWe extracted epidemiologic week (Epiweek)-based KD cases in patients <5 years of age (ICD-10-CM code: M303) from 2008 to 2017 national health insurance service data at the 250 municipal level. To determine whether spatial autocorrelation and persistent municipal-level clusters exist, year- and sex-stratified global Moran's I statistics, Getis-Ord Gi* statistics, and emerging hotspot analysis on KD incidence were conducted.ResultsA total of 72,510 KD cases were reported between 2008 and 2017 (male-to-female ratio = 1.40:1). Incidence has increased since 2008, with the highest incidence in 2016 (396.8 per 100,000 population). KD had seasonality of winter and summer but different by sex. Positive spatial autocorrelation was consistently reported in every stratum, with the 2011-2014 period having the strongest index value (total sex I = 0.286, p < 0.001; male I = 0.242, p < 0.001; female I = 0.213, p < 0.001). Hot spots were consistently detected in the northern parts, and cold spots were in the southern part for 9 years in both sexes. The emerging hot spot analysis showed new, consecutive, and sporadic hot spots on the northwestern and eastern coasts and new and sporadic cold spots in the southwestern part. However, the distribution and proportion of hot or cold spot types differed according to sex.DiscussionThe spatiotemporal features of KD had limits to concluding that only infectious triggers result in KD occurrence. Therefore, our findings support the notion that KD is a syndrome with multiple factors, including infectious, genetic, and environmental factors, that are associated with sex differences.

Dataset Information

Spatiotemporal matching between medical resources and population ageing in China from 2008 to 2017.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Spatiotemporal matching between medical resources and population ageing in China from 2008 to 2017.

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