Dataset Information

Smoking, life expectancy, and chronic disease in South Korea, Singapore, and the United States: A microsimulation model.

ABSTRACT: The substantial social and economic burden attributable to smoking is well-known, with heavy smokers at higher risk of chronic disease and premature mortality than light smokers and nonsmokers. In aging societies with high rates of male smoking such as in East Asia, smoking is a leading preventable risk factor for extending lives (including work-lives) and healthy aging. However, little is known about whether smoking interventions targeted at heavy smokers relative to light smokers lead to disproportionately larger improvements in life expectancy and prevalence of chronic diseases and how the effects vary across populations. Using a microsimulation model, we examined the health effects of smoking reduction by simulating an elimination of smoking among subgroups of smokers in South Korea, Singapore, and the United States. We found that life expectancy would increase by 0.2 to 1.5 years among light smokers and 2.5 to 3.7 years among heavy smokers. Whereas both interventions led to an increased life expectancy and decreased the prevalence of chronic diseases in all three countries, the life-extension benefits were greatest for those who would otherwise have been heavy smokers. Our findings illustrate how smoking interventions may have significant economic and social benefits, especially for life extension, that vary across countries.

SUBMITTER: Kim D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7269831 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Smoking, life expectancy, and chronic disease in South Korea, Singapore, and the United States: A microsimulation model.

Kim Daejung D Chen Cynthia C Tysinger Bryan B Park Sungchul S Chong Ming Zhe MZ Wang Lijia L Zhao Michelle M Yuan Jian-Min JM Koh Woon-Puay WP Yoong Joanne J Bhattacharya Jay J Eggleston Karen K

Health economics 20191204

The substantial social and economic burden attributable to smoking is well-known, with heavy smokers at higher risk of chronic disease and premature mortality than light smokers and nonsmokers. In aging societies with high rates of male smoking such as in East Asia, smoking is a leading preventable risk factor for extending lives (including work-lives) and healthy aging. However, little is known about whether smoking interventions targeted at heavy smokers relative to light smokers lead to dispr ...[more]

PMID: 31802569

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Project description:BackgroundPublic sentiments are an important indicator of crisis response, with the need to balance exigency without adding to panic or projecting overconfidence. Given the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have enacted various nationwide measures against the disease with social media platforms providing the previously unparalleled communication space for the global populations.ObjectiveThis research aims to examine and provide a macro-level narrative of the evolution of public sentiments on social media at national levels, by comparing Twitter data from India, Singapore, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States during the current pandemic.MethodsA total of 67,363,091 Twitter posts on COVID-19 from January 28, 2020, to April 28, 2021, were analyzed from the 5 countries with "wuhan," "corona," "nCov," and "covid" as search keywords. Change in sentiments ("very negative," "negative," "neutral or mixed," "positive," "very positive") were compared between countries in connection with disease milestones and public health directives.ResultsCountry-specific assessments show that negative sentiments were predominant across all 5 countries during the initial period of the global pandemic. However, positive sentiments encompassing hope, resilience, and support arose at differing intensities across the 5 countries, particularly in Asian countries. In the next stage of the pandemic, India, Singapore, and South Korea faced escalating waves of COVID-19 cases, resulting in negative sentiments, but positive sentiments appeared simultaneously. In contrast, although negative sentiments in the United Kingdom and the United States increased substantially after the declaration of a national public emergency, strong parallel positive sentiments were slow to surface.ConclusionsOur findings on sentiments across countries facing similar outbreak concerns suggest potential associations between government response actions both in terms of policy and communications, and public sentiment trends. Overall, a more concerted approach to government crisis communication appears to be associated with more stable and less volatile public sentiments over the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Project description:ImportanceUS life expectancy has not kept pace with that of other wealthy countries and is now decreasing.ObjectiveTo examine vital statistics and review the history of changes in US life expectancy and increasing mortality rates; and to identify potential contributing factors, drawing insights from current literature and an analysis of state-level trends.EvidenceLife expectancy data for 1959-2016 and cause-specific mortality rates for 1999-2017 were obtained from the US Mortality Database and CDC WONDER, respectively. The analysis focused on midlife deaths (ages 25-64 years), stratified by sex, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and geography (including the 50 states). Published research from January 1990 through August 2019 that examined relevant mortality trends and potential contributory factors was examined.FindingsBetween 1959 and 2016, US life expectancy increased from 69.9 years to 78.9 years but declined for 3 consecutive years after 2014. The recent decrease in US life expectancy culminated a period of increasing cause-specific mortality among adults aged 25 to 64 years that began in the 1990s, ultimately producing an increase in all-cause mortality that began in 2010. During 2010-2017, midlife all-cause mortality rates increased from 328.5 deaths/100 000 to 348.2 deaths/100 000. By 2014, midlife mortality was increasing across all racial groups, caused by drug overdoses, alcohol abuse, suicides, and a diverse list of organ system diseases. The largest relative increases in midlife mortality rates occurred in New England (New Hampshire, 23.3%; Maine, 20.7%; Vermont, 19.9%) and the Ohio Valley (West Virginia, 23.0%; Ohio, 21.6%; Indiana, 14.8%; Kentucky, 14.7%). The increase in midlife mortality during 2010-2017 was associated with an estimated 33 307 excess US deaths, 32.8% of which occurred in 4 Ohio Valley states.Conclusions and relevanceUS life expectancy increased for most of the past 60 years, but the rate of increase slowed over time and life expectancy decreased after 2014. A major contributor has been an increase in mortality from specific causes (eg, drug overdoses, suicides, organ system diseases) among young and middle-aged adults of all racial groups, with an onset as early as the 1990s and with the largest relative increases occurring in the Ohio Valley and New England. The implications for public health and the economy are substantial, making it vital to understand the underlying causes.

Dataset Information

Smoking, life expectancy, and chronic disease in South Korea, Singapore, and the United States: A microsimulation model.

Publications

Smoking, life expectancy, and chronic disease in South Korea, Singapore, and the United States: A microsimulation model.

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