A simplified math approach to predict ICU beds and mortality rate for hospital emergency planning under Covid-19 pandemic.

ABSTRACT: The different stages of Covid-19 pandemic can be described by two key-variables: ICU patients and deaths in hospitals. We propose simple models that can be used by medical doctors and decision makers to predict the trends on both short-term and long-term horizons. Daily updates of the models with real data allow forecasting some key indicators for decision-making (an Excel file in the Supplemental material allows computing them). These are beds allocation, residence time, doubling time, rate of renewal, maximum daily rate of change (positive/negative), halfway points, maximum plateaus, asymptotic conditions, and dates and time intervals when some key thresholds are overtaken. Doubling time of ICU beds for Covid-19 emergency can be as low as 2-3 days at the outbreak of the pandemic. The mod

SUBMITTER: Manca D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7271874 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature