Differential Effects of Intervention Timing on COVID-19 Spread in the United States.

ABSTRACT: Assessing the effects of early non-pharmaceutical interventions1-5 on COVID-19 spread in the United States is crucial for understanding and planning future control measures to combat the ongoing pandemic6-10. Here we use county-level observations of reported infections and deaths11, in conjunction with human mobility data12 and a metapopulation transmission model13,14, to quantify changes of disease transmission rates in US counties from March 15, 2020 to May 3, 2020. We find significant reductions of the basic reproductive numbers in major metropolitan areas in association with social distancing and other control measures. Counterfactual simulations indicate that, had these same control measures been implemented just 1-2 weeks earlier, a substantial number of cases and deaths could have b

SUBMITTER: Pei S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7273294 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature