Analysis of Covid-19 Data for Eight European Countries and the United Kingdom Using a Simplified SIR Model.

ABSTRACT: Understanding the characteristics of the SARS-Cov-2/Covid-19 pandemic is central to developing control strategies. Here we show how a simple Susceptible-Infective-Recovered (SIR) model applied to data for eight European countries and the United Kingdom (UK) can be used to forecast the descending limb (post-peak) of confirmed cases and deaths as a function of time, and predict the duration of the pandemic once it has peaked, by estimating and fixing parameters using only characteristics of the ascending limb and the magnitude of the first peak. As with all epidemiological analyses, unanticipated behavioral changes will result in deviations between projection and observation. This is abundantly clear for the current pandemic. Nonetheless, accurate short-term projections are possible, and the

SUBMITTER: Bhanot G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7273298 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature