Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades.

ABSTRACT: Theoretical understanding of the thermodynamic controls on tropical cyclone (TC) wind intensity, as well as numerical simulations, implies a positive trend in TC intensity in a warming world. The global instrumental record of TC intensity, however, is known to be heterogeneous in both space and time and is generally unsuitable for global trend analysis. To address this, a homogenized data record based on satellite data was previously created for the period 1982-2009. The 28-y homogenized record exhibited increasing global TC intensity trends, but they were not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Based on observed trends in the thermodynamic mean state of the tropical environment during this period, however, it was argued that the 28-y period was likely close to, but shor

SUBMITTER: Kossin JP 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7275711 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature