The impact of long-term non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic dynamics and control.

ABSTRACT: Non-pharmaceutical interventions to combat COVID-19 transmission have worked to slow the spread of the epidemic but can have high socio-economic costs. It is critical we understand the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions to choose a safe exit strategy. Many current models are not suitable for assessing exit strategies because they do not account for epidemic resurgence when social distancing ends prematurely (e.g., statistical curve fits) nor permit scenario exploration in specific locations. We developed an SEIR-type mechanistic epidemiological model of COVID-19 dynamics to explore temporally variable non-pharmaceutical interventions. We provide an interactive tool and code to estimate the transmission parameter, β, and the effective reproduction number, R _eff . We fit

SUBMITTER: Childs ML 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7276010 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature