Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions for containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The COVID-19 outbreak containment strategies in China based on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) appear to be effective. Quantitative research is still needed however to assess the efficacy of different candidate NPIs and their timings to guide ongoing and future responses to epidemics of this emerging disease across the World.

Methods

We built a travel network-based susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model to simulate the outbreak across cities in mainland China. We used epidemiological parameters estimated for the early stage of outbreak in Wuhan to parameterise the transmission before NPIs were implemented. To quantify the relative effect of various NPIs, daily changes of delay from illness onset to the first reported case in each county were u

SUBMITTER: Lai S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7276028 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature