Prediction of COVID-19 transmission dynamics using a mathematical model considering behavior changes in Korea.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Since the report of the first confirmed case in Daegu on February 18, 2020, local transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Korea has continued. In this study, we aimed to identify the pattern of local transmission of COVID-19 using mathematical modeling and predict the epidemic size and the timing of the end of the spread.

Methods

We modeled the COVID-19 outbreak in Korea by applying a mathematical model of transmission that factors in behavioral changes. We used the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data of daily confirmed cases in the country to estimate the nationwide and Daegu/Gyeongbuk area-specific transmission rates as well as behavioral change parameters using a least-squares method.

Results

The number of transmissions p

SUBMITTER: Kim S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7285444 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature