Estimating the reproductive number and the outbreak size of COVID-19 in Korea.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Since the first novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patient in Korea was diagnosed on January 20, 2020, 30 patients were diagnosed until February 17, 2020. However, 5,298 additional patients were confirmed until March 4, 2020. Therefore, our objective was to estimate the reproduction number (R) and evaluate the effectiveness of preventive measures.

Methods

A COVID-19 transmission model (SEIHR) was established to suit the Korean outbreak. The number of daily confirmed cases in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province (NGP), the main area of outbreak, was used. The first patient' symptom onset date in the Daegu/NGP outbreak was assumed as January 22, 2020. The R according to the start date of the effect of preventive measures was estimated.

Results

The estim

SUBMITTER: Choi S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7285447 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature