Burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in Canada, 2019-2030: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a growing proportion of liver disease cases, and there is a need to better understand future disease burden. We used a modelling framework to forecast the burden of disease of NAFLD and NASH for Canada.

Methods

We used a Markov model to forecast fibrosis progression from stage F0 (no fibrosis) to stage F4 (compensated cirrhosis) and subsequent progression to decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation and liver-related death among Canadians with NAFLD from 2019 to 2030. We used historical trends for obesity prevalence among adults to estimate longitudinal changes in the number of incident NAFLD cases.

Results

The model projected that the

SUBMITTER: Swain MG 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7286622 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr-Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature