Test, test, test for COVID-19 antibodies: the importance of sensitivity, specificity and predictive powers.

ABSTRACT: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody tests of varying specificity and sensitivity are now available. For informing individuals whether they have had coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), they need to be very accurate. For measuring population prevalence of past infection, the numbers of false positives and negatives need to be roughly equal. With a series of worked examples for a notional population of 100,000 people, we show that even test systems with a high specificity can yield a large number of false positive results, especially where the population prevalence is low. For example, at a true population prevalence of 5%, using a test with 99% sensitivity and specificity, 16% of positive results will be false and thus 950 people will be incorrectly informe

SUBMITTER: Kumleben N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7287442 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature