Impact of Lockdown on the Epidemic Dynamics of COVID-19 in France.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 epidemic was reported in the Hubei province in China in December 2019 and then spread around the world reaching the pandemic stage at the beginning of March 2020. Since then, several countries went into lockdown. Using a mechanistic-statistical formalism, we estimate the effect of the lockdown in France on the contact rate and the effective reproduction number R _e of the COVID-19. We obtain a reduction by a factor 7 (R _e = 0.47, 95%-CI: 0.45-0.50), compared to the estimates carried out in France at the early stage of the epidemic. We also estimate the fraction of the population that would be infected by the beginning of May, at the official date at which the lockdown should be relaxed. We find a fraction of 3.7% (95%-CI: 3.0-4.

SUBMITTER: Roques L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7290065 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature