Forecasting COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations under Different Levels of Social Distancing in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, Northern Italy: Results from an Extended SEIR Compartmental Model.

ABSTRACT: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. As of 17 April 2020, more than 2 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide. Northern Italy is one of the world's centers of active coronavirus cases. In this study, we predicted the spread of COVID-19 and its burden on hospital care under different conditions of social distancing in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, the two regions of Italy most affected by the epidemic. To do this, we used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) deterministic model, which encompasses compartments relevant to public health interventions such as quarantine. A new compartment L was added to the model for isolated infected population, i.e., individuals tested positives that do not need hospi

SUBMITTER: Reno C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7290384 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature