Estimation of Unreported Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Infections from Reported Deaths: A Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead Model.

ABSTRACT: In the midst of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic, examining reported case data could lead to biased speculations and conclusions. Indeed, estimation of unreported infections is crucial for a better understanding of the current emergency in China and in other countries. In this study, we aimed to estimate the unreported number of infections in China prior to the 23 January 2020 restrictions. To do this, we developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) model that estimated unreported infections from the reported number of deaths. Our approach relied on the fact that observed deaths were less likely to be affected by ascertainment biases than reported infections. Interestingly, we estimated that the basic reproductive number (R0) was 2.43 (95%CI = 2.42-2.44) at

SUBMITTER: Maugeri A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7291317 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature