Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Clark A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7295519 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study.
Clark Andrew A Jit Mark M Warren-Gash Charlotte C Guthrie Bruce B Wang Harry H X HHX Mercer Stewart W SW Sanderson Colin C McKee Martin M Troeger Christopher C Ong Kanyin L KL Checchi Francesco F Perel Pablo P Joseph Sarah S Gibbs Hamish P HP Banerjee Amitava A Eggo Rosalind M RM
The Lancet. Global health 20200615 8
<h4>Background</h4>The risk of severe COVID-19 if an individual becomes infected is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 and how this varies between countries should inform the design of possible strategies to shield or vaccinate those at highest risk.<h4>Methods</h4>We estimated the number of individuals at increased risk of severe disease (defined as those with at least ...[more]
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Project description:[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002034.].
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Project description:BackgroundWe provide updated crude and adjusted prevalence estimates of major birth defects in the United States for the period 2016-2020.MethodsData were collected from 13 US population-based surveillance programs that used active or a combination of active and passive case ascertainment methods to collect all birth outcomes. These data were used to calculate pooled prevalence estimates and national prevalence estimates adjusted for maternal race/ethnicity for all conditions, and maternal age for trisomies and gastroschisis. Prevalence was compared to previously published national estimates from 1999 to 2014.ResultsAdjusted national prevalence estimates per 10,000 live births ranged from 0.63 for common truncus to 18.65 for clubfoot. Temporal changes were observed for several birth defects, including increases in the prevalence of atrioventricular septal defect, tetralogy of Fallot, omphalocele, trisomy 18, and trisomy 21 (Down syndrome) and decreases in the prevalence of anencephaly, common truncus, transposition of the great arteries, and cleft lip with and without cleft palate.ConclusionThis study provides updated national estimates of selected major birth defects in the United States. These data can be used for continued temporal monitoring of birth defects prevalence. Increases and decreases in prevalence since 1999 observed in this study warrant further investigation.
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| S-EPMC6803124 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo examine the potential for bias in the estimate of under-5 mortality due to birth defects recently produced by the WHO and the Maternal and Child Epidemiology Estimation research group.DesignSystematic analysis.MethodsWe examined the estimated number of under-5 deaths due to birth defects, the birth defect specific under-5 mortality rate, and the per cent of under-5 mortality due to birth defects, by geographic region, national income and under-5 mortality rate for three age groups from 2000 to 2019.ResultsThe under-5 deaths per 1000 live births from birth defects fell from 3.4 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 3.1-3.8) in 2000 to 2.9 (UI 2.6-3.3) in 2019. The per cent of all under-5 mortality attributable to birth defects increased from 4.6% (UI 4.1%-5.1%) in 2000 to 7.6% (UI 6.9%-8.6%) in 2019. There is significant variability in mortality due to birth defects by national income level. In 2019, the under-5 mortality rate due to birth defects was less in high-income countries than in low-income and middle-income countries, 1.3 (UI 1.2-1.3) and 3.0 (UI 2.8-3.4) per 1000 live births, respectively. These mortality rates correspond to 27.7% (UI 26.6%-28.8%) of all under-5 mortality in high-income countries being due to birth defects, and 7.4% (UI 6.7%-8.2%) in low-income and middle-income countries.ConclusionsWhile the under-5 mortality due to birth defects is declining, the per cent of under-5 mortality attributable to birth defects has increased, with significant variability across regions globally. The estimates in low-income and middle-income countries are likely underestimated due to the nature of the WHO estimates, which are based in part on verbal autopsy studies and should be taken as a minimum estimate. Given these limitations, comprehensive and systematic estimates of the mortality burden due to birth defects are needed to estimate the actual burden.
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Project description:BackgroundThe absolute number of pneumonia deaths in India has declined substantially since 2000. However, pneumonia remains a major cause of morbidity in children in the country. We used a risk factor-based model to estimate pneumonia and severe pneumonia morbidity in Indian states in 2000 and 2015.MethodsIn this modelling study, we estimated the burden of pneumonia and severe pneumonia in children younger than 5 years using a risk factor-based model. We did a systematic literature review to identify published data on the incidence of pneumonia from community-based longitudinal studies and calculated summary estimates. We estimated state-specific incidence rates for WHO-defined clinical pneumonia between 2000 and 2015 using Poisson regression and the prevalence of risk factors in each state was obtained from National Family Health Surveys. From clinical pneumonia studies, we identified studies reporting the proportion of clinical pneumonia cases with lower chest wall indrawing to estimate WHO-defined severe pneumonia cases. We used the estimate of the proportion of cases with lower chest wall indrawing to estimate WHO-defined severe pneumonia cases for each state.FindingsBetween 2000 and 2015, the estimated number of pneumonia cases in Indian HIV-uninfected children younger than 5 years decreased from 83·8 million cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 14·0-300·8) to 49·8 million cases (9·1-174·2), representing a 41% reduction in pneumonia cases. The incidence of pneumonia in children younger than 5 years in India was 657 cases per 1000 children (95% UI 110-2357) in 2000 and 403 cases per 1000 children (74-1408) in 2015. The estimated national pneumonia case fatality rate in 2015 was 0·38% (95% UI 0·11-2·10). In 2015, the estimated number of severe pneumonia cases was 8·4 million (95% UI 1·2-31·7), with an incidence of 68 cases per 1000 children (9-257) and a case fatality ratio of 2·26% (0·60-16·30). In 2015, the estimated number of pneumonia cases in HIV-uninfected children was highest in Uttar Pradesh (12·4 million [95% UI 2·1-45·0]), Bihar (7·3 million [1·3-26·1]), and Madhya Pradesh (4·6 million [0·7-17·0]). Between 2000 and 2015, the greatest reduction in pneumonia cases was observed in Kerala (82% reduction). In 2015, pneumonia incidence was greater than 500 cases per 1000 children in two states: Uttar Pradesh (565 cases per 1000 children [95% UI 94-2047]) and Madhya Pradesh (563 cases per 1000 children [88-2084]).InterpretationThe estimated number of pneumonia and severe pneumonia cases among children younger than 5 years in India decreased between 2000 and 2015. Improvements in socioeconomic indicators and specific government initiatives are likely to have contributed to declines in the prevalence of pneumonia risk factors in many states. However, pneumonia incidence in many states remains high. The introduction of new vaccines that target pneumonia pathogens and reduce risk factors will help further reduce the burden of pneumonia in the country.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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