Estimating the daily trend in the size of the COVID-19 infected population in Wuhan.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a pandemic causing global health problem. We provide estimates of the daily trend in the size of the epidemic in Wuhan based on detailed information of 10 940 confirmed cases outside Hubei province.

Methods

In this modelling study, we first estimate the epidemic size in Wuhan from 10 January to 5 April 2020 with a newly proposed model, based on the confirmed cases outside Hubei province that left Wuhan by 23 January 2020 retrieved from official websites of provincial and municipal health commissions. Since some confirmed cases have no information on whether they visited Wuhan before, we adjust for these missing values. We then calculate the reporting rate in Wuhan from 20 January to 5 April 2020. Final

SUBMITTER: Lin QS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7301350 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature