Coronavirus disease 2019 in India: Post-lockdown scenarios and provisioning for health care.

ABSTRACT:

Background

With the rise of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in India, lockdown was imposed from March 25, 2020. We studied post-lockdown scenarios and evaluated health-care constraints. Our aim was to identify the scenarios in which health-care availability would not be overwhelmed.

Methods

A modified compartmental SEIR stochastic model was used to calculate peak cases at various levels of effectiveness of prevention of transmission. Health-care constraints were evaluated using a Delphi study. We developed "q-metric" to evaluate the epidemic. Key constraints were matched against scenarios generated, and a monitoring mechanism was devised.

Results

Continuing lockdown ("q-metric" of >50) until mid-August was theoretically the most effective solution to end the

SUBMITTER: Chatterjee K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7301789 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature