COVID-19 seeding time and doubling time model: an early epidemic risk assessment tool.

ABSTRACT:

Background

As COVID-19 makes its way around the globe, each nation must decide when and how to respond. Yet many knowledge gaps persist, and many countries lack the capacity to develop complex models to assess risk and response. This paper aimed to meet this need by developing a model that uses case reporting data as input and provides a four-tiered risk assessment output.

Methods

We used publicly available, country/territory level case reporting data to determine median seeding number, mean seeding time (ST), and several measures of mean doubling time (DT) for COVID-19. We then structured our model as a coordinate plane with ST on the x-axis, DT on the y-axis, and mean ST and mean DT dividing the plane into four quadrants, each assigned a risk level. Sensitivity analysis wa

SUBMITTER: Zhou L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7309203 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature