One year of modeling and forecasting COVID-19 transmission to support policymakers in Connecticut.

ABSTRACT: To support public health policymakers in Connecticut, we developed a county-structured compartmental SEIR-type model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 disease progression. Our goals were to provide projections of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, as well as estimates of important features of disease transmission, public behavior, healthcare response, and clinical progression of disease. In this paper, we describe a transmission model developed to meet the changing requirements of public health policymakers and officials in Connecticut from March 2020 to February 2021. We outline the model design, implementation and calibration, and describe how projections and estimates were used to support decision-making in Connecticut throughout the first year of the pandemic. We calibrate

SUBMITTER: Morozova O 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7310630 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature