A four-compartment model for the COVID-19 infection-implications on infection kinetics, control measures, and lockdown exit strategies.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To analyse the impact and repercussions of the surge in healthcare demand in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, assess the potential effectiveness of various infection/disease control measures, and make projections on the best approach to exit from the current lockdown.

Design

A four-compartment model was constructed for SARS-CoV-2 infection based on the Wuhan data and validated with data collected in Italy, the UK, and the US. The model captures the effectiveness of various disease suppression measures in three modifiable factors: (a) the per capita contact rate (β) that can be lowered by means of social distancing, (b) infection probability upon contacting infectious individuals that can be lowered by wearing facemasks, personal hygiene, etc., and (c) the populat

SUBMITTER: Wang T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7313816 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature