Dataset Information

The impact of climate change and glacier mass loss on the hydrology in the Mont-Blanc massif.

ABSTRACT: The Mont-Blanc massif, being iconic with its large glaciers and peaks of over 4,000 m, will experience a sharp increase in summer temperatures during the twenty-first century. By 2100, the impact of climate change on the cryosphere and hydrosphere in the Alps is expected to lead to a decrease in annual river discharge. In this work, we modelled the twenty-first century evolution of runoff in the Arve river, downstream of Mont-Blanc's French side. For the first time for this region, we have forced a hydrological model with output from an ice-dynamical glacier model and 16 downscaled climate projections, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. By 2100, under RCP8.5 (high-emission scenario), the winter discharge of the Arve river remains low but is expected to increase by 80% when compared to the beginning of the century. By contrast, the summer season, currently the most important discharge period, will be marked by a runoff decrease of approximately 40%. These changes are almost similar according to a scenario with a lower warming (RCP4.5) and are mostly driven by glacier retreat. These shifts will have significant downstream impacts on water quantity and quality, affecting hydroelectric generation, agriculture, forestry, tourism and aquatic ecosystems.

SUBMITTER: Laurent L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7319973 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The impact of climate change and glacier mass loss on the hydrology in the Mont-Blanc massif.

Laurent Léa L Buoncristiani Jean-François JF Pohl Benjamin B Zekollari Harry H Farinotti Daniel D Huss Matthias M Mugnier Jean-Louis JL Pergaud Julien J

Scientific reports 20200626 1

The Mont-Blanc massif, being iconic with its large glaciers and peaks of over 4,000 m, will experience a sharp increase in summer temperatures during the twenty-first century. By 2100, the impact of climate change on the cryosphere and hydrosphere in the Alps is expected to lead to a decrease in annual river discharge. In this work, we modelled the twenty-first century evolution of runoff in the Arve river, downstream of Mont-Blanc's French side. For the first time for this region, we have force ...[more]

PMID: 32591640

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Project description:Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the west face of the Drus (Mont Blanc massif, France) has been affected by a retrogressive erosion dynamic marked by large rockfall events. From the 1950s onwards, the rock failure frequency gradually increased until the large rockfall event (292,680 m3) of June 2005, which made the Bonatti Pillar disappear. Aiming to characterize the rock failure activity following this major event, which may be related to permafrost warming, the granitic rock face was scanned each autumn between October 2005 and September 2016 using medium- and long-range terrestrial laser scanners. All the point clouds were successively compared to establish a rockfall source inventory and determine a volume-frequency relationship. Eleven years of monitoring revealed a phase of rock failure activity decay until September 2008, a destabilization phase between September 2008 and November 2011, and a new phase of rock failure activity decay from November 2011 to September 2016. The destabilization phase was marked by three major rockfall events covering a total volume of 61,494 m3, resulting in the progressive collapse of a new pillar located in the northern part of the June 2005 rockfall scar. In the same way as for the Bonatti Pillar, rock failure instability propagated upward with increasing volumes. In addition to these major events, 304 rockfall sources ranging from 0.002 to 476 m3 were detected between 2005 and 2016. The temporal evolution of rock failure activity reveals that after a major event, the number of rockfall sources and the eroded volume both follow a rapid decrease. The rock failure activity is characterized by an exponential decay during the period following the major event and by a power-law decay for the eroded volume. The power law describing the distribution of the source volumes detected between 2005 and 2016 indicates an exponent of 0.48 and an average rock failure activity larger of more than six events larger than 1 m3 per year. Over the 1905-2016 period, a total of 426,611 m3 of rock collapsed from the Drus west face, indicating a very high rock wall retreat rate of 14.4 mm year-1 over a surface of 266,700 m2. Averaged over a time window of 1000 years, the long-term retreat rate derived from the frequency density integration of rock failure volumes is 2.9 mm year-1. Despite difficulty in accessing and monitoring the site, our study demonstrates that long-term surveys of high-elevation rock faces are possible and provide valuable information that helps improve our understanding of landscape evolution in mountainous settings subject to permafrost warming.

Dataset Information

The impact of climate change and glacier mass loss on the hydrology in the Mont-Blanc massif.

Publications

The impact of climate change and glacier mass loss on the hydrology in the Mont-Blanc massif.

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