Using critical slowing down indicators to understand economic growth rate variability and secular stagnation.

ABSTRACT: This paper utilizes Critical Slowing Down (CSD; instability) indicators developed by statistical physics to analyse economic growth rate variability and secular stagnation in historical GDP data. Understanding these phenomena is vital, particularly in advanced economies faced with declining growth rates. Two novel indicators - the autocorrelation (AR1) and the variance - are found particularly useful in providing insight into inter-decadal GDP variability over this period. These indicators are first applied to the Maddison-Project historical dataset, which includes almost a century of data for some 80 countries and almost two centuries of data for 9 countries. They are additionally applied to ~50 years of recent annual data for around 130 countries from the World Bank dataset as well as ~6

SUBMITTER: Rye CD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7320017 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature