Modelling of reproduction number for COVID-19 in India and high incidence states.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Since the onset of the COVID-19 in China, forecasting and projections of the epidemic based on epidemiological models have been in the centre stage. Researchers have used various models to predict the maximum extent of the number of cases and the time of peak. This yielded varying numbers. This paper aims to estimate the effective reproduction number (R) for COVID-19 over time using incident number of cases that are reported by the government.

Methods

Exponential Growth method to estimate basic reproduction rate R₀, and Time dependent method to calculate the effective reproduction number (dynamic) were used. "R0" package in R software was used to estimate these statistics.

Results

The basic reproduction number (R₀) for India was estima

SUBMITTER: Marimuthu S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7324346 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan-Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature