Real-time estimation of the reproduction number of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China in 2020 based on incidence data.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Since the first appearance in Wuhan, China in December 2019, the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has posed serious threats to the public health in many Chinese places and overseas. It is essential to quantify the transmissibility on real-time basis for designing public health responses.

Methods

We estimated the time-varying reproduction numbers in China, Hubei province and Wuhan city by using the renewable equation determined by the serial interval (SI) of COVID-19. We compare the average reproduction numbers in different periods of time to explore the effectiveness of the public health control measures against the COVID-19 epidemic.

Results

We estimated the reproduction numbers at 2.61 (95% CI: 2.47-2.75), 2.76 (95% CI: 2.54-2.95) and 2.71 (95% CI: 2.

SUBMITTER: Wang K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7327374 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature