Predicting re-emergence times of dengue epidemics at low reproductive numbers: DENV1 in Rio de Janeiro, 1986-1990.

ABSTRACT: Predicting arbovirus re-emergence remains challenging in regions with limited off-season transmission and intermittent epidemics. Current mathematical models treat the depletion and replenishment of susceptible (non-immune) hosts as the principal drivers of re-emergence, based on established understanding of highly transmissible childhood diseases with frequent epidemics. We extend an analytical approach to determine the number of 'skip' years preceding re-emergence for diseases with continuous seasonal transmission, population growth and under-reporting. Re-emergence times are shown to be highly sensitive to small changes in low R₀ (secondary cases produced from a primary infection in a fully susceptible population). We then fit a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovere

SUBMITTER: Subramanian R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7328382 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature