Chopping the tail: how preventing superspreading can help to maintain COVID-19 control.

ABSTRACT: Disease transmission is notoriously heterogeneous, and SARS-CoV-2 is no exception. A skewed distribution where few individuals or events are responsible for the majority of transmission can result in explosive, superspreading events, which produce rapid and volatile epidemic dynamics, especially early or late in epidemics. Anticipating and preventing superspreading events can produce large reductions in overall transmission rates. Here, we present a compartmental (SEIR) epidemiological model framework for estimating transmission parameters from multiple imperfectly observed data streams, including reported cases, deaths, and mobile phone-based mobility that incorporates individual-level heterogeneity in transmission using previous estimates for SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2. We parameterize th

SUBMITTER: Kain MP 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7340192 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature