Delayed emergence of a global temperature response after emission mitigation.

ABSTRACT: A major step towards achieving the goals of the Paris agreement would be a measurable change in the evolution of global warming in response to mitigation of anthropogenic emissions. The inertia and internal variability of the climate system, however, will delay the emergence of a discernible response even to strong, sustained mitigation. Here, we investigate when we could expect a significant change in the evolution of global mean surface temperature after strong mitigation of individual climate forcers. Anthropogenic CO₂ has the highest potential for a rapidly measurable influence, combined with long term benefits, but the required mitigation is very strong. Black Carbon (BC) mitigation could be rapidly discernible, but has a low net gain in the longer term. Methane mitigation

SUBMITTER: Samset BH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7341748 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature