Assessment of lockdown effect in some states and overall India: A predictive mathematical study on COVID-19 outbreak.

ABSTRACT: In the absence of neither an effective treatment or vaccine and with an incomplete understanding of the epidemiological cycle, Govt. has implemented a nationwide lockdown to reduce COVID-19 transmission in India. To study the effect of social distancing measure, we considered a new mathematical model on COVID-19 that incorporates lockdown effect. By validating our model to the data on notified cases from five different states and overall India, we estimated several epidemiologically important parameters as well as the basic reproduction number (R ₀). Combining the mechanistic mathematical model with different statistical forecast models, we projected notified cases in the six locations for the period May 17, 2020, till May 31, 2020. A global sensitivity analysis is carrie

SUBMITTER: Sardar T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7345298 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature