Real-time predictions of the 2018-2019 Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo using Hawkes point process models.

ABSTRACT: As of June 16, 2019, an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak has led to 2136 reported cases in the northeastern region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). As this outbreak continues to threaten the lives and livelihoods of people already suffering from civil strife and armed conflict, relatively simple mathematical models and their short-term predictions have the potential to inform Ebola response efforts in real time. We applied recently developed non-parametrically estimated Hawkes point processes to model the expected cumulative case count using daily case counts from May 3, 2018, to June 16, 2019, initially reported by the Ministry of Health of DRC and later confirmed in World Health Organization situation reports. We generated probabilistic estimates of the ongoing EVD outbre

SUBMITTER: Kelly JD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7358183 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature