Spatial dynamics and the basic reproduction number of the 1991-1997 Cholera epidemic in Peru.

ABSTRACT: After being cholera free for over 100 years, Peru experienced an unprecedented epidemic of Vibrio cholerae O1 that began in 1991 and generated multiple waves of disease over several years. We developed a mechanistic transmission model that accounts for seasonal variation in temperature to estimate spatial variability in the basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]), the initial concentration of vibrios in the environment, and cholera reporting rates. From 1991-1997, cholera spread following a multi-wave pattern, with weekly incidence concentrated during warm seasons. The epidemic first hit the coastal departments of Peru and subsequently spread through the highlands and jungle regions. The correlation between model predictions and observations was high (range in R2: 58% to 97%). Depa

SUBMITTER: Smirnova A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7360044 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature