Impact of delays on effectiveness of contact tracing strategies for COVID-19: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In countries with declining numbers of confirmed cases of COVID-19, lockdown measures are gradually being lifted. However, even if most physical distancing measures are continued, other public health measures will be needed to control the epidemic. Contact tracing via conventional methods or mobile app technology is central to control strategies during de-escalation of physical distancing. We aimed to identify key factors for a contact tracing strategy to be successful.

Methods

We evaluated the impact of timeliness and completeness in various steps of a contact tracing strategy using a stochastic mathematical model with explicit time delays between time of infection and symptom onset, and between symptom onset, diagnosis by testing, and isolation (testing delay).

SUBMITTER: Kretzschmar ME 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7365652 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature