Quantification of the Arctic Sea Ice-Driven Atmospheric Circulation Variability in Coordinated Large Ensemble Simulations.

ABSTRACT: A coordinated set of large ensemble atmosphere-only simulations is used to investigate the impacts of observed Arctic sea ice-driven variability (SIDV) on the atmospheric circulation during 1979-2014. The experimental protocol permits separating Arctic SIDV from internal variability and variability driven by other forcings including sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases. The geographic pattern of SIDV is consistent across seven participating models, but its magnitude strongly depends on ensemble size. Based on 130 members, winter SIDV is ~0.18 hPa² for Arctic-averaged sea level pressure (~1.5% of the total variance), and ~0.35 K² for surface air temperature (~21%) at interannual and longer timescales. The results suggest that more than 100 (40) members are need

SUBMITTER: Liang YC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7375043 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature