Mathematical model describing CoViD-19 in Sao Paulo, Brazil - evaluating isolation as control mechanism and forecasting epidemiological scenarios of release.

ABSTRACT: In São Paulo, Brazil, the first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (CoViD-19) was confirmed on 26 February, the first death due to CoViD-19 was registered on 16 March, and on 24 March, São Paulo implemented the isolation of persons in non-essential activities. A mathematical model was formulated based on non-linear ordinary differential equations considering young (60 years old or less) and elder (60 years old or more) subpopulations, aiming to describe the introduction and dissemination of the new coronavirus in São Paulo. This deterministic model used the data collected from São Paulo to estimate the model parameters, obtaining R0 = 6.8 for the basic reproduction number. The model also allowed to estimate that 50% of the population of São Paulo was in isolation, which permitted to describe

SUBMITTER: Yang HM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7378372 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature