Surveillance optimisation to detect poliovirus in the pre-eradication era: a modelling study of England and Wales.

ABSTRACT: Surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases are essential for polio eradication. However, as most poliovirus infections are asymptomatic and some regions of the world are inaccessible, additional surveillance tools require development. Within England and Wales, we demonstrate how inclusion of environmental sampling (ENV) improves the sensitivity of detecting both wild and vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) when compared to current surveillance. Statistical modelling was used to estimate the spatial risk of wild and VDPV importation and circulation in England and Wales. We estimate the sensitivity of each surveillance mode to detect poliovirus and the probability of being free from poliovirus, defined as being below a pre-specified prevalence of infection. Poliovirus risk was hig

SUBMITTER: O'Reilly KM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7379320 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature