Quantifying early COVID-19 outbreak transmission in South Africa and exploring vaccine efficacy scenarios.

ABSTRACT: The emergence and fast global spread of COVID-19 has presented one of the greatest public health challenges in modern times with no proven cure or vaccine. Africa is still early in this epidemic, therefore the extent of disease severity is not yet clear. We used a mathematical model to fit to the observed cases of COVID-19 in South Africa to estimate the basic reproductive number and critical vaccination coverage to control the disease for different hypothetical vaccine efficacy scenarios. We also estimated the percentage reduction in effective contacts due to the social distancing measures implemented. Early model estimates show that COVID-19 outbreak in South Africa had a basic reproductive number of 2.95 (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.83-3.33). A vaccine with 70% efficacy had the capaci

SUBMITTER: Mukandavire Z 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7380646 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature