Impact of lockdown on COVID-19 epidemic in Ile-de-France and possible exit strategies.

ABSTRACT:

Background

More than half of the global population is under strict forms of social distancing. Estimating the expected impact of lockdown and exit strategies is critical to inform decision makers on the management of the COVID-19 health crisis.

Methods

We use a stochastic age-structured transmission model integrating data on age profile and social contacts in Île-de-France to (i) assess the epidemic in the region, (ii) evaluate the impact of lockdown, and (iii) propose possible exit strategies and estimate their effectiveness. The model is calibrated to hospital admission data before lockdown. Interventions are modeled by reconstructing the associated changes in the contact matrices and informed by mobility reductions during lockdown evaluated from mobile phone data. Differe

SUBMITTER: Di Domenico L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7391016 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature