Accelerated river avulsion frequency on lowland deltas due to sea-level rise.

ABSTRACT: Sea-level rise, subsidence, and reduced fluvial sediment supply are causing river deltas to drown worldwide, affecting ecosystems and billions of people. Abrupt changes in river course, called avulsions, naturally nourish sinking land with sediment; however, they also create catastrophic flood hazards. Existing observations and models conflict on whether the occurrence of avulsions will change due to relative sea-level rise, hampering the ability to forecast delta response to global climate change. Here, we combined theory, numerical modeling, and field observations to develop a mechanistic framework to predict avulsion frequency on deltas with multiple self-formed lobes that scale with backwater hydrodynamics. Results show that avulsion frequency is controlled by the competition between r

SUBMITTER: Chadwick AJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7395564 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature