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An optimal posttreatment surveillance strategy for cancer survivors based on an individualized risk-based approach.


ABSTRACT: The optimal post-treatment surveillance strategy that can detect early recurrence of a cancer within limited visits remains unexplored. Here we adopt nasopharyngeal carcinoma as the study model to establish an approach to surveillance that balances the effectiveness of disease detection versus costs. A total of 7,043 newly-diagnosed patients are grouped according to a clinic-molecular risk grouping system. We use a random survival forest model to simulate the monthly probability of disease recurrence, and thereby establish risk-based surveillance arrangements that can maximize the efficacy of recurrence detection per visit. Markov decision-analytic models further validate that the risk-based surveillance outperforms the control strategies and is the most cost-effective. These results are confirmed in an external validation cohort. Finally, we recommend the risk-based surveillance arrangement which requires 10, 11, 13 and 14 visits for group I to IV. Our surveillance strategies might pave the way for individualized and economic surveillance for cancer survivors.

SUBMITTER: Zhou GQ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7400511 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An optimal posttreatment surveillance strategy for cancer survivors based on an individualized risk-based approach.

Zhou Guan-Qun GQ   Wu Chen-Fei CF   Deng Bin B   Gao Tian-Sheng TS   Lv Jia-Wei JW   Lin Li L   Chen Fo-Ping FP   Kou Jia J   Zhang Zhao-Xi ZX   Huang Xiao-Dan XD   Zheng Zi-Qi ZQ   Ma Jun J   Liang Jin-Hui JH   Sun Ying Y  

Nature communications 20200803 1


The optimal post-treatment surveillance strategy that can detect early recurrence of a cancer within limited visits remains unexplored. Here we adopt nasopharyngeal carcinoma as the study model to establish an approach to surveillance that balances the effectiveness of disease detection versus costs. A total of 7,043 newly-diagnosed patients are grouped according to a clinic-molecular risk grouping system. We use a random survival forest model to simulate the monthly probability of disease recur  ...[more]

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