How to Address Uncertainty in Health Economic Discrete-Event Simulation Models: An Illustration for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

ABSTRACT: Background. Evaluation of personalized treatment options requires health economic models that include multiple patient characteristics. Patient-level discrete-event simulation (DES) models are deemed appropriate because of their ability to simulate a variety of characteristics and treatment pathways. However, DES models are scarce in the literature, and details about their methods are often missing. Methods. We describe 4 challenges associated with modeling heterogeneity and structural, stochastic, and parameter uncertainty that can be encountered during the development of DES models. We explain why these are important and how to correctly implement them. To illustrate the impact of the modeling choices discussed, we use (results of) a model for chronic obstructive pulmonary

SUBMITTER: Corro Ramos I 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7401182 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature