A novel Monte Carlo simulation procedure for modelling COVID-19 spread over time.

ABSTRACT: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has now spread throughout most countries in the world causing heavy life losses and damaging social-economic impacts. Following a stochastic point process modelling approach, a Monte Carlo simulation model was developed to represent the COVID-19 spread dynamics. First, we examined various expected performances (theoretical properties) of the simulation model assuming a number of arbitrarily defined scenarios. Simulation studies were then performed on the real COVID-19 data reported (over the period of 1 March to 1 May) for Australia and United Kingdom (UK). Given the initial number of COVID-19 infection active cases were around 10 for both countries, the model estimated that the number of active cases would peak around 29 March in Australia (≈ 1,700

SUBMITTER: Xie G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7403316 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature