Dataset Information

COVID-19: Time to exonerate the pangolin from the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to humans.

ABSTRACT: The emergence of COVID-19 has triggered many works aiming at identifying the animal intermediate potentially involved in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to humans. The presence of SARS-CoV-2-related viruses in Malayan pangolins, in silico analysis of the ACE2 receptor polymorphism and sequence similarities between the Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) of the spike proteins of pangolin and human Sarbecoviruses led to the proposal of pangolin as intermediary. However, the binding affinity of the pangolin ACE2 receptor for SARS-CoV-2 RBD was later on reported to be low. Here, we provide evidence that the pangolin is not the intermediate animal at the origin of the human pandemic. Moreover, data available do not fit with the spillover model currently proposed for zoonotic emergence which is thus unlikely to account for this outbreak. We propose a different model to explain how SARS-CoV-2 related coronaviruses could have circulated in different species, including humans, before the emergence of COVID-19.

SUBMITTER: Frutos R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7405773 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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COVID-19: Time to exonerate the pangolin from the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to humans.

Frutos Roger R Serra-Cobo Jordi J Chen Tianmu T Devaux Christian A CA

Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases 20200805

The emergence of COVID-19 has triggered many works aiming at identifying the animal intermediate potentially involved in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to humans. The presence of SARS-CoV-2-related viruses in Malayan pangolins, in silico analysis of the ACE2 receptor polymorphism and sequence similarities between the Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) of the spike proteins of pangolin and human Sarbecoviruses led to the proposal of pangolin as intermediary. However, the binding affinity of the pangol ...[more]

PMID: 32768565

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Project description:ImportanceSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the etiology of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is readily transmitted person to person. Optimal control of COVID-19 depends on directing resources and health messaging to mitigation efforts that are most likely to prevent transmission, but the relative importance of such measures has been disputed.ObjectiveTo assess the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 transmissions in the community that likely occur from persons without symptoms.Design, setting, and participantsThis decision analytical model assessed the relative amount of transmission from presymptomatic, never symptomatic, and symptomatic individuals across a range of scenarios in which the proportion of transmission from people who never develop symptoms (ie, remain asymptomatic) and the infectious period were varied according to published best estimates. For all estimates, data from a meta-analysis was used to set the incubation period at a median of 5 days. The infectious period duration was maintained at 10 days, and peak infectiousness was varied between 3 and 7 days (-2 and +2 days relative to the median incubation period). The overall proportion of SARS-CoV-2 was varied between 0% and 70% to assess a wide range of possible proportions.Main outcomes and measuresLevel of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from presymptomatic, never symptomatic, and symptomatic individuals.ResultsThe baseline assumptions for the model were that peak infectiousness occurred at the median of symptom onset and that 30% of individuals with infection never develop symptoms and are 75% as infectious as those who do develop symptoms. Combined, these baseline assumptions imply that persons with infection who never develop symptoms may account for approximately 24% of all transmission. In this base case, 59% of all transmission came from asymptomatic transmission, comprising 35% from presymptomatic individuals and 24% from individuals who never develop symptoms. Under a broad range of values for each of these assumptions, at least 50% of new SARS-CoV-2 infections was estimated to have originated from exposure to individuals with infection but without symptoms.Conclusions and relevanceIn this decision analytical model of multiple scenarios of proportions of asymptomatic individuals with COVID-19 and infectious periods, transmission from asymptomatic individuals was estimated to account for more than half of all transmissions. In addition to identification and isolation of persons with symptomatic COVID-19, effective control of spread will require reducing the risk of transmission from people with infection who do not have symptoms. These findings suggest that measures such as wearing masks, hand hygiene, social distancing, and strategic testing of people who are not ill will be foundational to slowing the spread of COVID-19 until safe and effective vaccines are available and widely used.

Dataset Information

COVID-19: Time to exonerate the pangolin from the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to humans.

Publications

COVID-19: Time to exonerate the pangolin from the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to humans.

Similar Datasets

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