Projecting population distribution under depopulation conditions in Japan: scenario analysis for future socio-ecological systems.

ABSTRACT: This study develops a projection model of future population distribution on the basis of Japan's current depopulation trend and applies this model to scenario analyses that assume population compactification and dispersion. The model enables a description of population migration at two levels. First, municipal populations are projected using the cohort-component method, and second, the spatial distribution of populations within municipalities is projected at a 500 m grid resolution with the use of the gravity model. Based on the Japanese depopulation context and the country's National Spatial Strategy, the compact scenario predicts the formation of medium-scale regional urban areas (population centers located across Japan) and the concentration of people on high-density population areas wi

SUBMITTER: Hori K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7406701 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature