Travel restrictions and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: an effective distance approach to estimate impact.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To estimate the effect of airline travel restrictions on the risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) importation.

Methods

We extracted passenger volume data for the entire global airline network, as well as the dates of the implementation of travel restrictions and the observation of the first case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in each country or territory, from publicly available sources. We calculated effective distance between every airport and the city of Wuhan, China. We modelled the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation by estimating survival probability, expressing median time of importation as a function of effective distance. We calculated the relative change in importation risk under three different hypothetical scenarios that al

SUBMITTER: Shi S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7411317 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature